Scottish Weather Network Forum

General Information => Scottish Weather Chat => Topic started by: Budgie on February 03, 2011, 11:01:53 AM



Title: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: Budgie on February 03, 2011, 11:01:53 AM
I've just issued my first weather warning of the year:

Quote
Special Weather Warning issued by Hebrides Weather at 11:00 on Thursday 3rd February 2011

Severe gale to violent storm force winds are likely to effect all areas of the Western Isles and
Scottish Northwest mainland from mid-afternoon Thursday through to the early hours of Friday
morning.
Mean wind speeds of 50 mph and gusts of 70 to 80 mph can be expected with heavy rain and
the possibility of thunder.

The public are advised to secure any loose objects outside their homes and expect disruption to
ferry services and some road closures, especially on causeways and bridges.

This warning is valid until 04:00 GMT Friday 4th February 2011.

Will see what happens tonight.  ;)


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 03, 2011, 11:41:14 AM
I can see why too...not looking very nice at all for the NW

My wxsim fcst was giving 50+ wind speeds for over here tonight, but has now dropped them to a lower figure...It will be interesting to see what happens.



Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 03, 2011, 02:35:31 PM
My wxsim fcst was giving 50+ wind speeds for over here tonight, but has now dropped them to a lower figure...It will be interesting to see what happens.
A bit lower in the fcst here too now, though we have already (at 1400) notched up a gust that matches the fcst top speed for "today" shown in the 1200 fcst of 50mph. Overnight the fcst current has up to 54mph, so Stong Gale rather that the Violent Storm of earlier fcsts.

An interesting test for the new WxSim 12.8.5 beta wind/gust algorithm. I know that I'm using it. I think that Roger is. Are you Martin?



Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 03, 2011, 03:00:48 PM
A bit lower in the fcst here too now, though we have already (at 1400) notched up a gust that matches the fcst top speed for "today" shown in the 1200 fcst of 50mph. Overnight the fcst current has up to 54mph, so Stong Gale rather that the Violent Storm of earlier fcsts.
Just notched up 62mph SSW at 1501...


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 03, 2011, 03:45:32 PM
Well, I'll be blowed  ;D..Wxsim fcst was for 38mph and guess what max gust so far ...38mph...and yes, I'm using the beta 3 of 12.8.5.

Hang in there guys... ;)


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 03, 2011, 04:03:21 PM
Hmmmm...
Just after writing my last post I noticed that the weather computer's clock was way out (~8 minutes fast!). It seems that for some reason AboutTime hasn't been talking to the uk time pool for a while. That's now sorted but it meant I needed to stop WD then restart after a short while to avoid it getting confused (i.e. I stopped WD till just after the world had caught up with when WD though it had stopped). The max gust so far of 66mph (as seen by the VP2 and logged into Meteohub) was smack in that 'time out', so it's not in WD...


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: Budgie on February 03, 2011, 04:08:18 PM
I'm still using WXSim 12.8.4 at the moment, I was waiting for Tom to iron out all the bugs and Henkka to re-do the 3-in-1 forecast script before I updated.  ;)

1534 - Gust of 77 mph bit the rain has just about stopped and the wind seems to be calming down a wee bit now. I think it's having a rest before tonight.  ;D


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 03, 2011, 05:00:07 PM
I spoke too soon...wxsim fcst for afternoon was 29mph and night was 38mph....now had gust of 46mph (Davis for WD and Wxsim) and Inspeed of 48mph...

David, have you put any wind factors (preferences/settings{panel 1}/windgust controls/, ratio settings) into beta 3?...mine was at 1.0...but I have put it to 1.3 for the next auto fcst....


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 03, 2011, 05:50:34 PM
David, have you put any wind factors (preferences/settings{panel 1}/windgust controls/, ratio settings) into beta 3?...mine was at 1.0...but I have put it to 1.3 for the next auto fcst....
Mine are still at the standard "1.0", but then I only just remembered Tom's "blue text means click this for help" technique and thus have only just read up on the feature.

I'll be interested to hear the outcome of your experiments.

The latest run (I did an extra run on 1700 data) gives a figure of up to 55mph this evening. Currently the wind is around 25mph, gusting to a bit over 30mph. Local wisdom has it that the strongest winds usually arrive here a couple of hours after the pressure bottoms out. The pressure is now ~983hPa and 'steady'...


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: carseman on February 03, 2011, 06:35:29 PM
My settings are also at 1. Forecast was gusts t 36mph today and 35mph tonight. Just had a yearly record gust of 51.7. My next WXSIM run is at 19:40hrs. I am going to leave settings as they are and see what happens. Baro is 989 and still falling.

Chris


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: Budgie on February 04, 2011, 12:31:09 AM
Well, the power went out at 9pm and I've been on generator since then.
Will have to go to bed shortly and will loose the live feed to my site. This won't effect SCWN except for the forecast page which won't be updated until I'm back up & running here. Hopefully some time in the morning.

Highest gusts were 77mph, one at 1534 and another at 1744.  ;)


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 09:49:02 AM
My highest gusts were all around the 48mph mark, but the graph comparison with pressure and times of highest windspeed correlate very well with those that I have seen on Budgies site....Likewise the local wisdom that David mentioned (strong winds 2 hrs after pressure bottoming out) were also evident on my graphs....not quite the eye of the hurricane passing nearby, but a similar scenario.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 04, 2011, 10:37:13 AM
To misquote the old song "2 cups on my anemo, but I'm still rolling along"...

Highest recorded gust on the VP2 was 66mph at around 1500.

In the second wave of high speeds later on the VP2 (at 12m) was only just keeping up with, and was occasionally surpassed by, the old WMR928 anemometer which is at ~2.5m on top of a corner fence post (The WMR928 max gust was 58mph @ 1959).

I'd thought that cpmparative change was because by the second blast the direction had gone more westerly, by which time the VP2 catches turbulence but the WMR928 still has a clear view.

This morning as it got light I could see that the spin of the VP2 looked wrong and at some speeds the 'arm' shook considerably. The wind has now dropped almost entirely and I can see that a cup has been lost.

Judging from comparative graphs I think the damage occur ed as early as around the time of the 66mph reading because up to that point the VP2 was clearly ahead of the other anemometers but from that point on, even with the wind direction till good for a clear view the VP2 dropped to similar to or less than the others.

Making some hopefully educated guesses based on comparative behaviours I think the first wave ought to have topped out at a little higher (around 70mph) and that second wave was stronger that the first and ought to have produced figures over 70mph, probably around the mid 70's. That is however just guesswork.

I've just called Prodata and he's checking if they have a spare in stock...


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 11:27:29 AM
To misquote the old song "2 cups on my anemo, but I'm still rolling along"...

I've just called Prodata and he's checking if they have a spare in stock...

Before I larfs too much, I had better check mine.... ;D ::)  :o  I suppose that your mast started to go into sinusoidal wave action and eventually the rotor head vibrated itself into failure....or something like that  ::)

I hope you get sorted quickly...Typical weekend scenario with postal implications for you also....'yer never can win.....Mind you, taking the mast down, is not the easiest of things to do at this time of year anyway....definitely a .. :( :(


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 11:34:35 AM
My settings are also at 1. Forecast was gusts t 36mph today and 35mph tonight. Just had a yearly record gust of 51.7. My next WXSIM run is at 19:40hrs. I am going to leave settings as they are and see what happens. Baro is 989 and still falling.
Whilst the winds were as they were (in excess of 25 and gusting higher), I took the opportunity to play a little more with the wind gust setting adjustments....I used the 1.3 setting initially to get some sort of extreme setting so that I could see what the outcomes were.....subsequent fcsts and adjustments seem to indicate that between 1.1 to 1.2 is about correct.....but now the wind has dropped right off and my experiments have had to come to an end....we shall see what happens in the future, but for now I have left the setting at 1.1


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: weathermaster on February 04, 2011, 12:03:21 PM
Got a top gust of 84mph on my weather station that's its first proper storm and done really well with it. My WXSIM was saying gusts of 75mph so not to far out compared to other forecasts saying just 70mph gusts. We also had a bit of thunder as well.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 04, 2011, 12:08:15 PM
Before I larfs too much, I had better check mine.... ;D ::)  :o  I suppose that your mast started to go into sinusoidal wave action and eventually the rotor head vibrated itself into failure....or something like that  ::)
Yes, probably something like that. The fibreglass mast certainly "snakes" at times.

John has just emailed to say he is sending up a new set of cups. I hope that with the help of my long gin pole and boat winch, lowering and raising the pole should not be too exciting. Of course, if I'd had time to lower the mast last summer as I'd hoped to I'd probably have a fully operational Vortex up there even now instead of one with a dodgy bearing...

Having quickly reviewed the behaviour of the 3(!) anemometers I've decided to stick with the lame VP2 as "prime" for the moment at least. With only 2 cups it's not keen to start turning, but once it is going it is as representative as any of the others.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 12:27:55 PM
Got a top gust of 84mph on my weather station that's its first proper storm and done really well with it. My WXSIM was saying gusts of 75mph so not to far out compared to other forecasts saying just 70mph gusts. We also had a bit of thunder as well.
Oooher, that is some gust....Your wxsim fcst wasn't that far out either. :) :)...

For most of yesterday, my Lightning Detector was active and showing a considerable number of stikes in your area....There were so many strikes being detected that I looked at Budgies website to correlate and confirm the info....His was detecting the activity also.....

Which reminds me....if you see this Budgie, how are you managing to get the "Nexstorm Full Area Map" of detection uploaded to your site. Mine only does the local area map, which I find frustrating.....clues please?


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 12:43:56 PM
John has just emailed to say he is sending up a new set of cups. I hope that with the help of my long gin pole and boat winch, lowering and raising the pole should not be too exciting. Of course, if I'd had time to lower the mast last summer as I'd hoped to I'd probably have a fully operational Vortex up there even now instead of one with a dodgy bearing...

So there are now 2 x anemometers to sort David....at least we are the right side of the winter solstice and heading towards lighter days and warmer weather....and not anywhere midgie season either (yet)

I have recently, managed to get a pre 2006 Temp/Hum sensor from John D and also at the same time took the opportunity to get a couple of "supercaps" as spares for the MB's....All the failures that I have ever had previously, have been over week-ends, bank holidays etc.. It always builds in those extra days of data loss, before it can all be sorted.

Apologies to all for going way "Off Topic"


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 04, 2011, 02:05:39 PM
So there are now 2 x anemometers to sort David....
Yes, looking on the bright side I ought to be able to do both jobs at once.  :)

...at least we are the right side of the winter solstice and heading towards lighter days and warmer weather....and not anywhere midgie season either (yet)
I certainly hope the repair gets done before then...
...but I'd better not speak too soon, or too loud!

And on reflection, given last December's temperatures I'm not too annoyed that I opted to spend all the spare time last summer on fitting insulation around the house rather than sparing some for servicing the Vortex. I'll stop there before I go too far Off Topic myself.  ;)


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: Budgie on February 04, 2011, 03:40:20 PM
Which reminds me....if you see this Budgie, how are you managing to get the "Nexstorm Full Area Map" of detection uploaded to your site. Mine only does the local area map, which I find frustrating.....clues please?
I'm using NSlog & NSDisplay for my Nexstorm image. I can only get the regional image for WASP II (which is normal ;) ).
I keep the Nexstorm map at 750 miles, rather than auto ranging, and NSDisplay uses the map that Nexstorm uploads. NSLog does the rest.
It's Hennka who does NSDisplay and Jim Mcmurray for NSLog (http://jcweather.us/NSLog.php).

I take it that's what you mean?


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: weathermaster on February 04, 2011, 05:06:01 PM
Thought I would share this with you. I made a map showing the top gusts from Met Office weather stations. The 115mph is from the Cairngorm mountain.



Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 04, 2011, 05:23:04 PM
Thought I would share this with you. I made a map showing the top gusts from Met Office weather stations. The 115mph is from the Cairngorm mountain.
Thanks Sean.

I'm not surprised that Lusa (Skye) is low as the station is poorly positioned for Westerlies. The mature conifer plantation that used to be within ~100m of the station on that side has been felled in recent years, but even so it is still a bit sheltered by the rising ground. Mind you it must be quite a problem trying to find a site on Skye that is reasonably flat for a good distance all round. Most of the sites I can think of that are properly open to Westerlies have worse obstacles on the other side so Lusa may well be as close as you'll get! LOL


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 06:33:20 PM
Which reminds me....if you see this Budgie, how are you managing to get the "Nexstorm Full Area Map" of detection uploaded to your site. Mine only does the local area map, which I find frustrating.....clues please?
I'm using NSlog & NSDisplay for my Nexstorm image. I can only get the regional image for WASP II (which is normal ;) ).
I keep the Nexstorm map at 750 miles, rather than auto ranging, and NSDisplay uses the map that Nexstorm uploads. NSLog does the rest.
It's Hennka who does NSDisplay and Jim Mcmurray for NSLog (http://jcweather.us/NSLog.php).

I take it that's what you mean?
Exactly what I mean....I have never spotted those before...I will have to investigate further...mmm


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 04, 2011, 06:36:03 PM
Thought I would share this with you. I made a map showing the top gusts from Met Office weather stations. The 115mph is from the Cairngorm mountain.
The map certainly shows how the Outer Isles took the brunt of the storm....a good job on the map Sean....very interesting....thanks


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: weathermaster on February 05, 2011, 12:39:09 PM
Thanks.

Made one for England and Wales for Fridays top gusts.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 05, 2011, 03:44:34 PM
It sure was windy ....The 90 mph one in Wales was on a mountain top I believe...but even so, there were some quite high values elsewhere.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: weathermaster on February 05, 2011, 04:11:08 PM
Yeah the 90mph was on the mountain.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 05, 2011, 06:18:04 PM
I certainly hope the repair gets done before then...
The mast is now down.

The replacement cups arrived in the post, but as our post doesn't arrive till late afternoon it would have been too much of a rush job to get the mast back up today.

I notice that the replacement is different to the original. On the original the cup arms are separate moldings that fit into slots on the hub with no obvious means of fixing, so maybe a dab of glue or some such was involved?  I can see a crack in the back of the slot of the arm that is missing. The replacement hub and cups are a one piece molding.

I received an email from another Davis owner who lives between here and Broadford. His anemometer lost 2 cups at just about the same time mine did! I know that his was also the "arm in a slot" design as he mentioned in the email that when things calmed down he'd found the cups (many yards away) and tried unsuccessfully to refit them. I thinks he's going to get a set of "small cups" as replacements (apparently the small cups are poorer at slow speeds but are supposed to be okay for speeds up to 150mph!).


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 05, 2011, 06:26:46 PM
The mast is now down.

The replacement cups arrived in the post, but as our post doesn't arrive till late afternoon it would have been too much of a rush job to get the mast back up today.

I notice that the replacement is different to the original. On the original the cup arms are separate moldings that fit into slots on the hub with no obvious means of fixing, so maybe a dab of glue or some such was involved?  I can see a crack in the back of the slot of the arm that is missing. The replacement hub and cups are a one piece molding.

I received an email from another Davis owner who lives between here and Broadford. His anemometer lost 2 cups at just about the same time mine did! I know that his was also the "arm in a slot" design as he mentioned in the email that when things calmed down he'd found the cups (many yards away) and tried unsuccessfully to refit them. I thinks he's going to get a set of "small cups" as replacements (apparently the small cups are poorer at slow speeds but are supposed to be okay for speeds up to 150mph!).
I'm impressed.....I had anticipated a long period of just watching the 2 cup device spinning away....ho ho. 

Is this going to a double repair? ie inclusion of the Vortex hub/bearing as well.

I will await signs of a repair having taken place.....mmmm

Best of luck. ;D


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 05, 2011, 09:52:44 PM
I'm impressed.....I had anticipated a long period of just watching the 2 cup device spinning away....ho ho.
Me too, but the weather was okay, I didn't have anything pressing to do, and at certain speeds the 2 cup rotor caused an alarming amount of wobble in the anemometer arm! I didn't at that stage know the replacement would be here today, but even so it seemed like a good idea to take the opportunity to at least get the mast down. If the Vortex had been working properly it would have been a harder choice to make, but I suspect the wobble might have been enough of a factor to make lowering the sensible choice anyway?

Quote
Is this going to a double repair? ie inclusion of the Vortex hub/bearing as well.
That's the idea.
Rather than play with circlips and other small components 5' over grass I aim to swap the entire unit for a spare have ready. I've already removed the old unit. I've left the bracket in place and just detached the plastic bit. I've not taken it to pieces but when I took the mounting screw out it was obvious that there was water inside (not unexpected after seeing the pic's from when you dismantled yours).


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 06, 2011, 10:06:20 AM
......I aim to swap the entire unit for a spare have ready. I've already removed the old unit. I've left the bracket in place and just detached the plastic bit. I've not taken it to pieces but when I took the mounting screw out it was obvious that there was water inside (not unexpected after seeing the pic's from when you dismantled yours).
Did you make any sort of protective baffle to try and prevent water ingress....ie similar to mine?  It has been interesting to note that my own modified vortex with the "tempory repair" (shaft base and bearing base plus baffle) has been running in situ for about 3 years now.....I put plenty of thin Teflon based cycle oil in it too....I still have my properly repaired/modded S/H system with new shaft etc ready for eventual positioning if needed (fingers crossed)


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 06, 2011, 12:07:41 PM
Did you make any sort of protective baffle to try and prevent water ingress....ie similar to mine?
No. Lorenzo was quite sure he had the problem solved with the latest design of bearing so I'll let this be a test case!

Both replacements are now on the mast, but the mast is still down. It's now a matter of awaiting a suitable opportunity to raise it. The wind speed is just about okay at the moment but it's raining rather too much to tempt me out again; it was only intermittent drizzle while fitting the new bits and threading the replacement Vortex's cable.


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 06, 2011, 02:43:44 PM
No. Lorenzo was quite sure he had the problem solved with the latest design of bearing so I'll let this be a test case!

Both replacements are now on the mast, but the mast is still down. It's now a matter of awaiting a suitable opportunity to raise it. The wind speed is just about okay at the moment but it's raining rather too much to tempt me out again; it was only intermittent drizzle while fitting the new bits and threading the replacement Vortex's cable.
I guess it will be "all hands on deck" at the mo, as it has apparently stopped raining over there...for 30 seconds anyway!!!


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: skyewright on February 06, 2011, 06:30:27 PM
I guess it will be "all hands on deck" at the mo, as it has apparently stopped raining over there...for 30 seconds anyway!!!
Yes. After lunch it looked good enough to get started, and as the afternoon wore on it got better. I could not have wished for finer weather.  :)
The VP2 anemometer has been talking to the console since around 1600, and was reconnected to WD (and thus the website) at 1720.
To complete the Vortex job I need to re-patch some 1-wire connections in the control box, something I decided to leave for another occasion.
The biggest part of the job was resetting all the guys. With guys at 5 heights and with anchors out as far as ~12m from the base for the top set I must have walked quite a distance this afternoon. The guys needed completely resetting as I'd needed to adjust the height. I'd suspected for some time that some of the telescopic sections had slipped a bit over time and that proved to be the case. This time as well as tightening the collars I've added jubilee clips immediately above the joins to help prevent slippage (i.e. for the section to slip it need to slip through the clip as well as into the section below) and on the 2 joints where the slipage occurred (and thus the most suspect) I've put a "tell tale" mark 5cm above the join. I should be able to see if there is slippage again by observing the "tell tale" from the ground. 


Title: Re: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!
Post by: munrobaggins on February 06, 2011, 09:51:23 PM
Excellent news :)

I had guessed that all was working now....It sounds as though you have done a real fine job on the mast, particularly with the additional modifications.  Some good thinking there. ;)