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Author Topic: First Storm of the Season on it's way!  (Read 456 times)
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Budgie
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« on: September 06, 2009, 02:20:40 PM »

There's a nice little depression out in the Atlantic that's heading our way at the moment.
It's forecast to deepen through Monday before passing to the NW of the Western Isles on Tuesday evening giving gusts of between 50 & 80mph.
The UKMO are also forecasting upto 40mm of rain falling in places as the low moves northwest.
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Tugmistress
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« Reply #1 on: September 06, 2009, 04:39:28 PM »

yeah been watching this with interest  Grin i love a good blow but it could have picked a better night! i'll be outside unloading a trailer about 11pm!
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skyewright
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« Reply #2 on: September 06, 2009, 09:20:31 PM »

The UKMO are also forecasting upto 40mm of rain falling in places as the low moves northwest.
WxSim thinks Storm force winds and around 40mm of rain for Tuesday too.
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David
Budgie
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« Reply #3 on: September 06, 2009, 10:51:50 PM »

Yep, WXSim is giving 56mph gusts and 30mm of rain on my 21:00 forecast run. Wink
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skyewright
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« Reply #4 on: September 07, 2009, 02:21:12 PM »

Yep, WXSim is giving 56mph gusts and 30mm of rain on my 21:00 forecast run. Wink
And you might like to check out Tom's reply in my "Where is gust?" topic in Weather-Watch/WxSim. It seems that WxSim is thinking of a gust as being a 1 minute thing, rather than a few seconds and is using 120% of max wind in the time slot. Here at least gusts are frequently a good deal more than 20% above the average windspeed at the same time.
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David
Budgie
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« Reply #5 on: September 07, 2009, 05:54:57 PM »

I've been reading that thread, it was a good point to bring up as I hadn't really thought about it.
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weathermaster
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« Reply #6 on: September 07, 2009, 09:12:14 PM »

My Wind Map For Tuesday. Hang on to your hats!!

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skyewright
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« Reply #7 on: September 07, 2009, 09:53:23 PM »

I've been reading that thread, it was a good point to bring up as I hadn't really thought about it.
Now Tom's clarified what he means by "gusting" I'm musing on how best to phrase a reply. Today has been too hectic to think much about it.

If it needs to be a multiplier I wonder if something based on the sweep through 'local' data that he's already doing (e.g. the last 30 day station average for gust/ave) might be better than a flat 120%, or perhaps a user definable figure?

Or maybe just a change of wording away from 'gusting', e.g. 'occasionally' or 'perhaps', as in the shipping forecast, but that would probably have loads of implications for plaintext.txt parsers.

PS. Getting almost back on topic, I notice that the current UKMO Mallaig forecast for tomorrow has some gust speeds in excess of 200% of 'wind' for the same slot.
« Last Edit: September 07, 2009, 10:04:16 PM by skyewright » Logged

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David
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« Reply #8 on: September 07, 2009, 11:14:17 PM »

New Gale Warning for Hebrides Sea Area:

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Gale warning   2137 Mon 07 Sep

Southeasterly gale force 8 imminent, veering southerly and increasing violent storm force 11 soon

You'll notice that just didn't bother with Severe Gale 9 or Storm 10 and went straight to VS 11!
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Tugmistress
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« Reply #9 on: September 08, 2009, 07:19:45 AM »

well our last sailing this evening from scrabster to stromness has been under review from yesterday, they're making a decision this morning - i reckon they'll cancell and at a guess i'll record a max gust of between 60 and 65mph here - we'll see later Cheesy

have a fun day folks, i know i will Cheesy
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skyewright
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« Reply #10 on: September 08, 2009, 02:32:53 PM »

You'll notice that just didn't bother with Severe Gale 9 or Storm 10 and went straight to VS 11!
WxSim 1300 for Elgol:
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Cloudy. A slight chance of rain. High 14. Wind southwest around 38 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Chance of precipitation less than 20 percent. Precipitation mostly less than 2 mm.
i.e. Violent Storm
Highest gust measured so far has been 64 mph, highest average 54 mph, windrun stands at 435 miles @ 1430.
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David
Budgie
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« Reply #11 on: September 08, 2009, 03:02:16 PM »

Got ya beat David.

Average - 63 mph at 12:06
Highest gust - 74 MPH also at 12:06

Still getting gusts at over 50 knots but generally it seems to be easing down a bit now and the pressure is rising again.
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skyewright
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« Reply #12 on: September 08, 2009, 05:26:25 PM »

Got ya beat David.

Average - 63 mph at 12:06
Highest gust - 74 MPH also at 12:06
I think you were always likely to win.  Wink

One thing that's interesting for me is to compare the "new anemometer" figures against the "old", which is still in operation, and speculate on what may be to come later in the season - the highest gust according to the WMR200 on the old pole has been just under 46 mph.

Still getting gusts at over 50 knots but generally it seems to be easing down a bit now and the pressure is rising again.
It seems to be heading round a bit West and easing a touch here too. WD is just showing 9 bft now, in place of the 10 that was there for much of the afternoon.
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David
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« Reply #13 on: September 08, 2009, 05:32:47 PM »

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High winds have also caused problems in the north of Scotland with 17 CalMac ferry services cancelled or disrupted, including those on the Isle of Eriskay - Isle of Barra route, in the Western Isles.

A yacht, The Spirit of Rema, also had to be rescued off the island of Lewis.

The 10m vessel was sheltered in the lee of the island at Arnish, when one of its anchors fouled on a rope and the local lifeboat crew had to be called out to tow the vessel to safety in Stornoway Harbour.

Meanwhile, council workers had to be called in to help after a cypress tree at Inverness's main Tomnahurich Cemetery was blown down and hit a passing car. The woman driver was taken to hospital.

Traffic lights were also blown out in Inverness city centre.

From BBC News http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/scotland/glasgow_and_west/8244247.stm
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munrobaggins
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« Reply #14 on: September 08, 2009, 06:08:39 PM »

Highest gust today on my vortex anemometer (over here in the sheltered east) was 49 mph...I hope that we have passed the worst by now, as the max gust was at 1611 local.....The trees around here have been taking a real battering though, as they are still in full leaf. Sad Sad..
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Baggins
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