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Author Topic: First Weather Warning of 2011 issued!  (Read 18195 times)
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Budgie
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« on: February 03, 2011, 11:01:53 AM »

I've just issued my first weather warning of the year:

Quote
Special Weather Warning issued by Hebrides Weather at 11:00 on Thursday 3rd February 2011

Severe gale to violent storm force winds are likely to effect all areas of the Western Isles and
Scottish Northwest mainland from mid-afternoon Thursday through to the early hours of Friday
morning.
Mean wind speeds of 50 mph and gusts of 70 to 80 mph can be expected with heavy rain and
the possibility of thunder.

The public are advised to secure any loose objects outside their homes and expect disruption to
ferry services and some road closures, especially on causeways and bridges.

This warning is valid until 04:00 GMT Friday 4th February 2011.

Will see what happens tonight.  Wink
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munrobaggins
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« Reply #1 on: February 03, 2011, 11:41:14 AM »

I can see why too...not looking very nice at all for the NW

My wxsim fcst was giving 50+ wind speeds for over here tonight, but has now dropped them to a lower figure...It will be interesting to see what happens.

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Baggins
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« Reply #2 on: February 03, 2011, 02:35:31 PM »

My wxsim fcst was giving 50+ wind speeds for over here tonight, but has now dropped them to a lower figure...It will be interesting to see what happens.
A bit lower in the fcst here too now, though we have already (at 1400) notched up a gust that matches the fcst top speed for "today" shown in the 1200 fcst of 50mph. Overnight the fcst current has up to 54mph, so Stong Gale rather that the Violent Storm of earlier fcsts.

An interesting test for the new WxSim 12.8.5 beta wind/gust algorithm. I know that I'm using it. I think that Roger is. Are you Martin?

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David
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« Reply #3 on: February 03, 2011, 03:00:48 PM »

A bit lower in the fcst here too now, though we have already (at 1400) notched up a gust that matches the fcst top speed for "today" shown in the 1200 fcst of 50mph. Overnight the fcst current has up to 54mph, so Stong Gale rather that the Violent Storm of earlier fcsts.
Just notched up 62mph SSW at 1501...
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David
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« Reply #4 on: February 03, 2011, 03:45:32 PM »

Well, I'll be blowed  Grin..Wxsim fcst was for 38mph and guess what max gust so far ...38mph...and yes, I'm using the beta 3 of 12.8.5.

Hang in there guys... Wink
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« Reply #5 on: February 03, 2011, 04:03:21 PM »

Hmmmm...
Just after writing my last post I noticed that the weather computer's clock was way out (~8 minutes fast!). It seems that for some reason AboutTime hasn't been talking to the uk time pool for a while. That's now sorted but it meant I needed to stop WD then restart after a short while to avoid it getting confused (i.e. I stopped WD till just after the world had caught up with when WD though it had stopped). The max gust so far of 66mph (as seen by the VP2 and logged into Meteohub) was smack in that 'time out', so it's not in WD...
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« Reply #6 on: February 03, 2011, 04:08:18 PM »

I'm still using WXSim 12.8.4 at the moment, I was waiting for Tom to iron out all the bugs and Henkka to re-do the 3-in-1 forecast script before I updated.  Wink

1534 - Gust of 77 mph bit the rain has just about stopped and the wind seems to be calming down a wee bit now. I think it's having a rest before tonight.  Grin
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munrobaggins
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« Reply #7 on: February 03, 2011, 05:00:07 PM »

I spoke too soon...wxsim fcst for afternoon was 29mph and night was 38mph....now had gust of 46mph (Davis for WD and Wxsim) and Inspeed of 48mph...

David, have you put any wind factors (preferences/settings{panel 1}/windgust controls/, ratio settings) into beta 3?...mine was at 1.0...but I have put it to 1.3 for the next auto fcst....
« Last Edit: February 03, 2011, 05:38:47 PM by munrobaggins » Logged

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« Reply #8 on: February 03, 2011, 05:50:34 PM »

David, have you put any wind factors (preferences/settings{panel 1}/windgust controls/, ratio settings) into beta 3?...mine was at 1.0...but I have put it to 1.3 for the next auto fcst....
Mine are still at the standard "1.0", but then I only just remembered Tom's "blue text means click this for help" technique and thus have only just read up on the feature.

I'll be interested to hear the outcome of your experiments.

The latest run (I did an extra run on 1700 data) gives a figure of up to 55mph this evening. Currently the wind is around 25mph, gusting to a bit over 30mph. Local wisdom has it that the strongest winds usually arrive here a couple of hours after the pressure bottoms out. The pressure is now ~983hPa and 'steady'...
« Last Edit: February 03, 2011, 05:59:11 PM by skyewright » Logged

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David
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« Reply #9 on: February 03, 2011, 06:35:29 PM »

My settings are also at 1. Forecast was gusts t 36mph today and 35mph tonight. Just had a yearly record gust of 51.7. My next WXSIM run is at 19:40hrs. I am going to leave settings as they are and see what happens. Baro is 989 and still falling.

Chris
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Budgie
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« Reply #10 on: February 04, 2011, 12:31:09 AM »

Well, the power went out at 9pm and I've been on generator since then.
Will have to go to bed shortly and will loose the live feed to my site. This won't effect SCWN except for the forecast page which won't be updated until I'm back up & running here. Hopefully some time in the morning.

Highest gusts were 77mph, one at 1534 and another at 1744.  Wink
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munrobaggins
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« Reply #11 on: February 04, 2011, 09:49:02 AM »

My highest gusts were all around the 48mph mark, but the graph comparison with pressure and times of highest windspeed correlate very well with those that I have seen on Budgies site....Likewise the local wisdom that David mentioned (strong winds 2 hrs after pressure bottoming out) were also evident on my graphs....not quite the eye of the hurricane passing nearby, but a similar scenario.
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« Reply #12 on: February 04, 2011, 10:37:13 AM »

To misquote the old song "2 cups on my anemo, but I'm still rolling along"...

Highest recorded gust on the VP2 was 66mph at around 1500.

In the second wave of high speeds later on the VP2 (at 12m) was only just keeping up with, and was occasionally surpassed by, the old WMR928 anemometer which is at ~2.5m on top of a corner fence post (The WMR928 max gust was 58mph @ 1959).

I'd thought that cpmparative change was because by the second blast the direction had gone more westerly, by which time the VP2 catches turbulence but the WMR928 still has a clear view.

This morning as it got light I could see that the spin of the VP2 looked wrong and at some speeds the 'arm' shook considerably. The wind has now dropped almost entirely and I can see that a cup has been lost.

Judging from comparative graphs I think the damage occur ed as early as around the time of the 66mph reading because up to that point the VP2 was clearly ahead of the other anemometers but from that point on, even with the wind direction till good for a clear view the VP2 dropped to similar to or less than the others.

Making some hopefully educated guesses based on comparative behaviours I think the first wave ought to have topped out at a little higher (around 70mph) and that second wave was stronger that the first and ought to have produced figures over 70mph, probably around the mid 70's. That is however just guesswork.

I've just called Prodata and he's checking if they have a spare in stock...
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David
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« Reply #13 on: February 04, 2011, 11:27:29 AM »

To misquote the old song "2 cups on my anemo, but I'm still rolling along"...

I've just called Prodata and he's checking if they have a spare in stock...

Before I larfs too much, I had better check mine.... Grin Roll Eyes  Shocked  I suppose that your mast started to go into sinusoidal wave action and eventually the rotor head vibrated itself into failure....or something like that  Roll Eyes

I hope you get sorted quickly...Typical weekend scenario with postal implications for you also....'yer never can win.....Mind you, taking the mast down, is not the easiest of things to do at this time of year anyway....definitely a .. Sad Sad
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« Reply #14 on: February 04, 2011, 11:34:35 AM »

My settings are also at 1. Forecast was gusts t 36mph today and 35mph tonight. Just had a yearly record gust of 51.7. My next WXSIM run is at 19:40hrs. I am going to leave settings as they are and see what happens. Baro is 989 and still falling.
Whilst the winds were as they were (in excess of 25 and gusting higher), I took the opportunity to play a little more with the wind gust setting adjustments....I used the 1.3 setting initially to get some sort of extreme setting so that I could see what the outcomes were.....subsequent fcsts and adjustments seem to indicate that between 1.1 to 1.2 is about correct.....but now the wind has dropped right off and my experiments have had to come to an end....we shall see what happens in the future, but for now I have left the setting at 1.1
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Baggins
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